Is it finally time for the Edmonton Oilers to enter their Stanley Cup Contenders era?
It’s been too many years since Connor McDavid began playing for the Edmonton Oilers and not hoisting the Stanley Cup above his head. He’s the greatest player on the planet, and it feels like the Oilers have been working their way to finally surrounding him with the support needed to actually contend.
Will this be the year?
In February, Dom Luszczyszyn at The Athletic laid out some key common elements Stanley Cup winners have had over the past decade:
• Elite first-line center
• Elite first-line winger
• Two other top-line wingers in the top six
• Top-line 2C
• Elite 1D
• A second 1D
• A top-pairing defenseman on the second pairing
• A top-10 starting goaltender
Here’s how the team graded out prior to last season’s trade deadline:
As shown, the areas where the Oilers did not meet these elements of Cup contenders were: elite goaltender, a top-pairing defenseman on the second pairing, and top-six forward depth. Did the Oilers improve these three areas enough to move squarely into contention status?
GOALTENDING
This well could be the achilles heel of this team. While Stuart Skinner stepped up with Jack Campbell struggling amidst some of his worst hockey in his professional career, he also got completely shelled against the Vegas Golden Knights. Most speculate that he simply ran out of steam and the Golden Knights were an absolute buzzsaw through most of the Western Conference en route to lifting Lord Stanley’s chalice.
The ideal scenario for Edmonton would be if Campbell can bounce back and they can run a true tandem, keeping both fresh down the crucial back stretch of the season. But what happens if Campbell is relegated to a (relatively expensive) backup role and Stuart has to shoulder the bulk of starts this season? Will the Oilers see a repeat of his playoff performance again once they hit tougher competition than the Los Angeles Kings outside the first round? And what options are even available when the team is cap-strapped for in-season adjustments?
Achilles heel, indeed.
TOP-PAIRING DEFENSEMAN
Admittedly, Cody Ceci not being a top-pairing defenseman wasn’t exactly an ah-ha realization. The Oilers went out at last year’s trade deadline and upgraded him with the acquisition of Mattias Ekholm.
A full season of Ekholm in the lineup should be a clear upgrade in this category for the Oilers. However, as a comprehensive defensive unit, there’s still some work to do. Outscoring your deficiencies might work over the course of a season, but isn’t usually a recipe for success in the playoffs. Of the 16 playoff teams last season, 14 of those ranked at least in the top half of the league in goals against average, including the top 11.
Edmonton wasn’t far off that — they ranked 17th in goals against average per game last year, so they weren’t wildly off. Even an incremental improvement this season could go a long way to playoff success where the games have historically tended to be played tighter.
TOP SIX FORWARDS
Here’s another spot where it’s tough to say whether the Oilers improved dramatically. Mattias Janmark and Ryan MacLeod were both re-signed this offseason. But maybe the improvement here is predicated on Connor Brown’s addition. The one-year deal he signed after missing most of last season due to injury could be a low-risk option to see if he can capture some chemistry with former linemate McDavid at the NHL level. If he is healthy and clicks the way he did in the OHL, he’ll easily be a 20-goal scorer. He also pushes Janmark down the lineup into the bottom six where he fits better.
One thing that will be key with him is having patience. He’s coming off a torn ACL, and players have remarked how hard it is to come back from that and feel absolutely comfortable and trust you won’t tear it again. However, there’s a lot of potential here that could lead to a resounding yes to an upgrade in this category of Cup contender roster construction.